Can EA Go 5 for 5? World Cup Sim Picks Spain for 2026

Four in a row. That's how many consecutive Men's World Cup winners EA Sports has correctly predicted through its pre-tournament simulation, a streak that started with Spain in 2010 and ran through Germany (2014), France (2018), and Argentina (2022). Now, as the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off today in Mexico, EA Sports has announced its pick for this year: Spain again, completing what would be an almost absurd five-tournament run of accuracy if it holds.

The simulation has Spain capturing their second Men's World Cup title, sixteen years after their first. It also projects 18-year-old Lamine Yamal as the tournament's overall top scorer in what would be his first World Cup. And if you're an American fan hoping for a deep run on home soil, the sim has bad news: the United States gets bounced in the round of 16, according to ESPN's reporting on the results.

I'll be honest, the streak is the story here more than the pick itself. Spain are one of the favourites going in, so selecting them isn't exactly a bold call. But EA's simulation has been right four straight times gives it a weight that no pre-tournament prediction model from a game publisher should reasonably have. The last time it was wrong was 2006, when it picked the Czech Republic to win. The Czech Republic didn't even make it out of the group stage. The gap between that disaster and the current run is staggering.

Gaming Goes All-In on the World Cup

EA's sim is just one piece of a much larger push across the games industry to capitalize on the tournament. Three Xbox Game Pass titles received World Cup updates this week. Football Manager 26 received an official FIFA World Cup 2026 update featuring all 48 qualified teams with licensed kits, letting you manage any squad through the tournament. Rocket League launched a limited-time World Cup event running until July 20 with team-coloured car decals and a golden title for whoever backs the eventual winner. And Rematch rolled out its Nations Cup 2067 update, a sci-fi spin on the World Cup theme with national customization kits and an in-game tournament running until July 23.

Even outside Game Pass, the tie-ins are everywhere. Melon Sandbox on mobile is highlighting football-themed UGC content and has a FIFA-branded event launching June 26. EA Sports FC 25 remains on Game Pass Ultimate via EA Play, though it didn't receive the dedicated World Cup update that EA Sports FC 26 got. Free-to-play football game GOALS just launched and offers monthly Game Pass subscriber rewards, even if it lacks official team licensing.

The sheer volume of World Cup content dropping across games this week is a reminder of how much the tournament moves the needle commercially, even for titles that have nothing to do with football. Rocket League selling team decals and Melon Sandbox running FIFA events tells you exactly how wide the marketing net stretches.

Back to the sim, though, because that's what people will be tracking over the next six weeks. EA no longer holds the FIFA license, so there won't be an official FIFA-branded World Cup mode in EA Sports FC 26. But the simulation itself has become its own annual tradition, and the four-tournament streak has given it a bizarre credibility. If Spain lifts the trophy in July, EA will have correctly called five straight World Cups. If they don't, the streak dies, and the sim goes back to being a fun marketing exercise rather than something people actually reference with a straight face. Spain are strong enough that I wouldn't bet against the streak surviving, but international football has a way of humbling predictions. Ask the 2006 Czech Republic.